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Hot Hand Fallacy

The hot hand fallacy is a cognitive bias that describes the belief that someone who has experienced a series of successful outcomes (such as hitting a streak of shots in basketball or winning a series of bets) is more likely to experience continued success in the future.

This belief is considered a fallacy because there is little evidence to suggest that a streak of good luck in a random process such as shooting a basketball or throwing dice is likely to continue. Here are a few examples of how the hot hand fallacy can manifest in people's behavior:

  • In sports, players and fans may believe that a player who has hit several shots in a row is "hot" and therefore more likely to make their next shot. This can lead to poor decision-making, such as shooting the ball when a better option would be to pass it to a teammate.
  • In gambling, a person may believe that a streak of luck on one particular game or machine means that they are more likely to win if they continue to play on that game or machine. This can lead them to invest more money in the game or machine than they can afford to lose.
  • In the stock market, investors may believe that a stock that has performed well recently is likely to continue to perform well in the future. This can lead to overconfidence and investment in a stock that is actually overvalued.
  • In business, managers may attribute success to certain employee or team and give them more responsibilities or opportunities, not considering that there might have been other factors that contributed to the success.

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