What is a Kondratieff long wave?

The Kondratieff long wave, also known as the Kondratieff cycle, is a long-term economic theory named after Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff (1892–1938).

It proposes that the world economy experiences long-term cycles of growth and recession that last between 50 and 60 years. These cycles are characterized by alternating periods of expansion and contraction, with each cycle having several distinct phases.

The theory asserts that these cycles are driven by technological innovations that result in new industries and increased productivity, followed by a period of consolidation and contraction. The cycle then begins anew with the introduction of new technologies and innovations.

Critics of the Kondratieff long wave theory argue that it is difficult to test and that its predictions have not been accurate. Despite these criticisms, the theory continues to be an important and influential idea in economic thought and is studied by economists and business leaders who are interested in long-term economic trends and patterns.

There are varying opinions on the validity and usefulness of the Kondratieff cycle as a tool for understanding long-term economic trends and patterns. While some economists argue that there is evidence of the Kondratieff cycle in the data, others argue that the theory is too broad and lacks the necessary specificity to be useful for predictive purposes.

Despite these disagreements, some examples of historical events and periods that have been associated with the Kondratieff cycle include the rise of steam power and the textile industry in the late 18th and early 19th centuries, the growth of the oil and automobile industries in the early 20th century, and the computer and information technology revolution of the late 20th century.